Looking Ahead: Midterm Elections
Map of the incumbents: Blue = Democratic incumbent; Pink = Republican incumbent; Red = Retiring Republican; Dark gray = Undetermined incumbent; Light gray = No election
Protecting the results and supporting the runoff elections in Georgia are priorities through January 21, 2021, but after the inaugural celebration, it will be time to get back to work and prioritize gaining full control of the senate.
The overall good news is that thirteen Democrats are up for re-election, whereas twenty-one Republicans are up, so the odds are in for the Democrats to flip seats. The less good news is that the party that does not win the presidency tends to have a slight advantage because of the checks-and-balances argument. See the Midterm Prospects PDF for more details.
Flip Opportunities (in probability order, highest to lowest):
Pat Toomey (PA) is vacating his seat and won by only 1.5% last election
Roy Blunt (MO) only won by 2.8% and won't have Trump to help him
Ron Johnson (WI) only won by 3.4% last election
Richard Burr (NC) is vacating his seat and won by only 5.7% in the last election
Marco Rubio (FL) only won by 7.7%
Todd Young (IN) only won by 9.7%, but most do not think he is particularly vulnerable
Rand Paul (KY) only won by 14.6%, not seen as vulnerable, but was pretty egregiously bad
Lisa Murkowski (AK) won by 15.2% but is vulnerable because she irritated Trump supporters by her voting
Hold requirements (in vulnerability order, highest to lowest):
Maggie Hassan (NH) won by only 0.1% and is considered VERY vulnerable
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) won by only 2.4% and is considered vulnerable
Mark Kelly (AZ) who just won Arizona by 2.4% will be up again in two years because this was McCain's seat
Michael Bennet (CO) won with only a 5.7% margin.
Tammy Duckworth (IL) won with a 15% margin and is not considered to be particularly vulnerable
